Brexit is Lost


Kevin McFarlane

Here’s why Brexit is lost…

  1. The long-term (over months) trend of opinion polls shows Remain in the lead. For example, the moving average poll of polls here: http://whatukthinks.org/eu/opinion-polls/poll-of-polls/.
  2. Online polls skew towards Leave. Phone polls skew towards Remain. From past performance phone polls have been more accurate predictors.
  3. Older voters (e.g., over-65s) favour Leave. Younger voters (up to mid-30s) favour Remain. Older voters have generally been more likely to vote. That may also hold true this time. Despite this the polls have on average been favouring Remain.
  4. But there has been a recent reverse of older voters’ favouring Leave. “The majority of older voters, Conservative supporters and men are now backing the campaign to stay in the EU following a collapse in support for Brexit.” (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/23/eu-referendum-poll-pensioners-tory-voters-and-men-are-deserting/). No doubt this explains the 6-10 point Remain lead of te past two weeks.
  5. Assuming most of those who are currently undecided intend to vote it’s reasonable to assume they will vote for “safety,” hence will vote to Remain.
  6. Most people are motivated by perceptions of their short-term economic wellbeing. Almost all prominent bodies predict at the least a short-term (a few years) economic hit. A recent analysis in the Daily Mail describing a big swing towards Remain also highlighted that “project fear” from the government, and its sponsored reports, was not a big factor. Yet still there was a swing to Remain. It might be that they are paying attention to the opinions of nominally independent bodies or medium to large enterprises. Whether these predictions are right is irrelevant. There is an expectation that the status quo is economically safer. (For older voters it might be that they think, even if there is short-term pain but long-term gain, this will be no good for them as they will be dead or economically inactive and so unable to reap the rewards.)
  7. Many are concerned by immigration but they are probably also aware that it may still be somewhat high after Brexit anyway. But even if not it ranks lower than considerations of short-term economic wellbeing. This is reminiscent of a survey I remember seeing in the 2005 election. Voters ranked the Tories higher on immigration and law and order but they ranked Labour higher on education and the NHS. But the latter two were higher on their list of priorities and trumped the Tories’ concerns over immigration and law and order (and the EU for that matter).
  8. Apart from immigration the Leave side emphasise loss of sovereignty, burdensome regulations and the democratic deficit in the EU. But the average voter sees regulations as necessary and probably thinks many EU ones are worthwhile. And considerations of sovereignty and the superiority of Anglo-Saxon jurisprudence are too abstruse for the average voter. Hence they will emphasise [perceived] economic well-being and, for the young at least, things like cheap flights, ease of movement around the continent and so on. Plus, as the young don’t vote, or deem it to be of marginal significance, considerations of sovereignty are even further removed from their minds than from those of older voters.
  9. Although both sides have been accused of Project Fear the Leave side always seem to be reacting to the latest Fear story from the Remain side. Rarely have they looked proactive. As in the Scottish Referendum Project Fear tends to work best for the status quo. Those who would challenge it need to offer more than just being on the defensive.

Kevin

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3 comments

  • It ain’t over ’till it’s over.

  • Just looking at the wider picture, I do agree with you (and with Dr Gabb) that the situation is bad, however I don’t believe the situation is as hopeless as you might believe it to be. If Brexit is the outcome this month, then it will still be a long struggle, but there’s a chance of a peaceful resolution in the end, at least for the identity/immigration question, because the general political situation will begin to change. If Brexit is not the outcome, then unless there is a very strong political momentum towards an early second referendum, I think the only outcome is going to be violence (i.e. some kind of Troubles-type situation). I think Brexit is the last opportunity to resolve this democratically.

    I have to be honest, I would prefer a Troubles-type situation. That’s because my priority here is ethnic and racial, the reason being that as I see it, race is the pivot of a civilisation and British ethnicity is distinct and should be preserved. It’s just my opinion, but I think if we look at history, we can see that we have been here before. All these dramas have been played out in the past. It’s the wheel of history turning. Brexit would put us on the right path politically and civically, but it would not in and of itself save us racially. There are a lot of people – including some on this blog – who would be happy with, or at least accept, an assimilated multi-racial society along the lines of most South American countries. It’s the Ray Honeyford approach to things, typical conservative view that you can civically ‘integrate’ people. I think this is wrong and even illiterate. When you integrate an alien race, and even a proximate non-alien ethnicity such as the Irish, you are changing the host population irrevocably. Assimilation, which is the liberal multi-cultural model, will mean a Balkanised society. Acculturation, which is the conservative multi-cultural model, just means the eradication of the white race.

    I won’t accept either, and for that reason, I am wary of a post-Brexit scenario because I know it represents what I’ll call the ‘Ray Honeyford’ trap. However, despite my modal preferences and long-term reservations, I will vote for Brexit, for broadly similar reasons to Dr Gabb’s and also in the plaintive (and forlorn?) hope that the grim long-term prognosis I have painted above can be avoided and racial Europe can still be saved by peaceful means.

    • I won’t say much about this, other than I share your general outlooks. It is the most pressing, yet most difficult aspect of our times, in my opinion. It is hard, it is unpleasant, it is and can be nasty, but it does not necessarily come from such places – it comes from a form of love, a sense of right and wrong, of great sorrow as to what is transpiring and what the end result will be unless anything changes.

      You’re right about your trap. Both sides of the deck are stacked against us, and leaving would only be the first stage of en even bigger task. Those who have power over us, for whatever their reasons, do not seem to want to let us escape this fate. They are addicted to, or are wedded into, systems and structures and attitudes which earmark us for destruction.

      Already we are hearing from the “Brexit” side of the argument, Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, amongst many others, even Nigel Farage…..that we should have “free movement of labour” between the commonwealth, should we leave.

      So, instead of being obliterated via EU and their third party inhabitants hailing from the third world, they would like to carry on just the same, but welcome the non-white world straight through – if they “have the skills”, etc. Sure, they will speak of the Anglo-sphere, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, who are themselves transforming – but I am sure it would be opened out to others, in “fairness”.

      All peaceful means of securing survival are, as always, looking likely to be denied as an option. We may have as little as 25 years left as an ethnic majority in England. Many cite some time after 2050, but those estimations were about 12 years ago, we have had record breaking immigration since then, year after year, and major imbalances have showing up on even those figures (with NI numbers etc), along with even more reports of people smugglers operating at quiet coasts for decades….and it is far from over.

      Within the space of 100 years, we will have gone from 99.8% English/Briton, to less that 50%. That is radical. That is extreme. Those who vote for Labour, Liberals, Conservatives are voting for the real extremist parties…..and the prevailing orthodoxies that fuel them will still be around after an exit.

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